It was just 12 days ago that a Substack article knocked hundreds of billions of dollars off the stock market. The fact that that article – a hypothetical memo about AI causing a white-collar jobs apocalypse, triggering a financial crisis – had such an impact speaks to how theoretical the world seemed just last week.
At the time, many other theories were being discussed: Would the US strike Iran? Would Iran retaliate by triggering a regional war? Would Iran close the Strait of Hormuz? Would the regime fall?
Last week – theory; this week – reality.
This week was one that saw the facts of the world change. How exactly? Let’s get into it.
In case you’re tired of the war, we’ll go beyond that to developments in AI, US politics, and China, where a major development happened. But first, we have to start in Tehran.
After six days of war, the US-Israeli approach seems relatively clear. The overall goal, though, less so.
The US and Israel have divided Iran up, with Israel targeting central and western Iran and the US, the south. They’ve been attempting to methodically eliminate Iran’s military capabilities, including by bombing missile and drone production, storage, and launch facilities. When Iran wheels out a missile launcher, the US and Israel try to blow it up. They’ve also been destroying Iran’s (already weakened) air defenses.
On Wednesday, Defense Secretary Hegseth predicted that Iran would soon look like this:
“We will fly all day [and] all night … finding, fixing and finishing the missiles and defense industrial base of the Iranian military; finding and fixing their leaders and their military leaders; flying over Tehran… [with] Iranian leaders looking up and seeing only U.S. and Israeli air power every minute of every day, until we decide it’s over — and Iran will be able to do nothing about it.”
That’s one part of the strategy. Another involves destroying the regime’s ability to repress its own people. This has seen Israel, in particular, bomb facilities used by Iranian intelligence, the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and Basij, the pro-regime paramilitary group that killed thousands of protesters in January.
An Iranian source told Roca today:
[Anti-regime Iranians] say they are waiting for the IRGC bases to be destroyed, and that as soon as Trump or Prince Pahlavi calls on people to take to the streets, they will do so. They are waiting for that signal. However, since many people were brutally slaughtered a month ago, they want to make sure the IRGC is weakened first so they face less risk than before.
That’s exactly what Israel and the US seem to hope will happen, however, the countries aren’t waiting: It emerged this week that they are both talking to the Kurds, who have a large presence in the Iraq-Iran border region and who have worked closely with Americans in Iraq and Syria.
The US and Israel may want to trigger a Kurdish uprising because it would pressure Iran’s government and forces. However, there are arguments against it, including the potential for a civil war or the alienation of anti-regime Iranians who don’t want to see their country broken apart.
While the US and Israel consider an uprising and bomb the country, Iran’s initially fierce retaliation has slowed considerably. On Thursday, the Pentagon said that Iranian missile launches were down 90% compared to the war’s first day, while drone strikes were down 80%. While analysts have cautioned that Iran could be saving its most powerful weapons for later in the conflict, the war has undeniably reduced Iran’s ability to launch missiles.
But that doesn’t mean the country can’t inflict pain: Its Shahed drones – one-way explosive projectiles that are cheap to produce, easy to make, and expensive to shoot down – mean it can continue to threaten its neighbors and American troops. It was one of these drones that killed six Americans in Kuwait last weekend.
The war is also inflicting considerable pain on the global economy.
Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have essentially stopped, leaving energy-exporting countries like Qatar, Iraq, and Kuwait unable to ship out their product. Prices are now climbing: Today, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil hit $92, a 43% increase over a month prior. In Europe, natural gas prices are up 60% since last week, from $30 to $52 (American natural gas trades on a different market and hasn’t spiked considerably).
And this is Iran’s strategy: Force the US to end the war by making the cost unbearable for Washington and its Arab allies.
So far, Trump seems unwilling to bend. On Friday, amid the spiking energy prices, he posted on Truth Social that he would make no deal with Iran without its “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and “the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader.”
As of today, Iran seems unlikely to concede on either point. If the American strategy works, that will change.
So that’s the war, but there’s been a lot of other news, too.
In politics, Trump fired Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem after a disastrous Senate hearing, in which she was grilled about labeling Alex Pretti a “domestic terrorist,” spending $220M on ads that prominently featured herself, channeling that money to a company owned by a colleague, and an alleged affair with an aide.
While Trump said that Noem “has served us well, and has had numerous and spectacular results (especially on the Border!),” there’s little mistaking that she was fired after deportation policy became a political liability.
Trump replaced her with Sen. Markwayne Mullin (OK), a Republican who – despite going viral in 2023 for challenging the head of the Teamsters union to a fight – is reportedly respected and much less of a firebrand. Teamsters President Sean O’Brien actually praised the appointment, saying, “If anyone is willing to stand their butt up to protect America, it’s Markwayne Mullin,” O’Brien said in a statement.
We should also note that Texas is shaping up to be perhaps the fiercest battle of 2026: On Tuesday, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) failed to win 50% in his primary vote, sending him to a head-to-head runoff against the Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Many Republicans believe that Paxton, a firebrand who has been dogged by corruption scandals, is a major liability. Either Paxton or Cornyn will be going against James Talarico, the progressive pastor who won the Democratic primary.
Yet while Democrats smell blood, it wouldn’t be the first time they mistakenly thought Texas was in play.
The Pentagon-AI battle also continued.
Last Thursday, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said he “cannot in good conscience” give in to Pentagon demands and remove safeguards against using its technology for autonomous warfare or domestic surveillance. A day later, the Defense Department designated Anthropic a “supply-chain risk to national security,” effectively barring federal agencies and defense contractors from using its AI (Claude) and thereby cutting off its existing or pending ~$200M military contract.
Never one to miss an opportunity, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman proceeded to accept the Pentagon’s demands and win the contract, despite having expressed support for Anthropic’s “red lines” just days prior. In fact, on February 26, Altman wrote to employees:
We have long believed that AI should not be used for mass surveillance or autonomous lethal weapons, and that humans should remain in the loop for high-stakes automated decisions. These are our main red lines
Altman’s pivot triggered a backlash, forcing him to say that the deal had appeared “rushed,” “opportunistic,” and “sloppy.” While he said OpenAI is renegotiating parts of the Pentagon contract, a “Cancel ChatGPT” campaign led to a reported 295% spike in ChatGPT uninstalls and a surge in Claude downloads, briefly making it the #1 app on the App Store.
And one more notable story.
Every year, China’s Communist Party sets a GDP growth target. This year, it set its lowest target in 35 years – targeting a range of just 4.5-5%. For context, China grew by more than 6% every year from 1991 to 2019. In most of those years, it grew by more than 8%. 4.5-5% is high for a developed country, but a far cry from China’s peak boom years.
Now, a growth target is an abstract and political number that doesn’t inherently mean much, and there are lots of ways to divine exactly what it means – in terms of China’s domestic politics, deficit, and power. But it’s a Friday afternoon, so we’ll keep it simple: After decades of breakneck growth, China’s economic growth looks increasingly normal.
Editor’s Note
And that’s the world this week. If you all enjoyed this story, let us know and we’ll do more in the future. On busy news weeks, we often find ourselves missing the forest for the trees, so we enjoy taking a step back and putting articles like this together.
Also, in case you’ve missed it, we’ve started publishing Frost’s daily on-the-ground series with his dispatches from the Middle East. You can find those here.
Thanks for reading,
Max and Max
This recap was fantastic! It would be great if you guys are able to continue it from now on!
Really appreciate what y'all do to make the news easier to digest and give facts, not just opinions or fear mongering.