By Max Frost
In The Jetsons, life is pretty good.
People zip around in flying cars; families are happy; and robots dress up the humans and clean their homes. It’s the post-war American boom, set in space. And George Jetson has a job.
Yet as our technology gets ever closer to The Jetsons, it’s that last part – not the flying cars or the robots – that seems unrealistic.
Hype around AGI – the next stage of AI and considered by many to be the holy grail of modern technology – is leading to an unparalleled boom in markets and tech investment. While existing AI acts as an assistant – tell it what to do, and it can kind of do it – AGI acts as a thinking being, able to teach itself new skills and information and then apply it independently. It’s the technology that could be not just the paralegal or the secretary, but the paralegal, secretary, and lawyer all in one.
Not long ago, AGI was considered a pipe dream. Then the arrival of ChatGPT highlighted the rapid strides being made in AI technology and led to the realization: AGI wasn’t that far off. Not long ago, many in Silicon Valley would have laughed at someone who said we’d have AGI by 2070; now, someone who doubts we’ll have it by 2040 may be considered a Luddite. Many major tech figures expect it to arrive by 2030.
The arrival of AGI means different things to different people. Yet most agree on this: It will enable mass firings.
That leads to the paradox: For the stock market bubble not to burst, AGI needs to be achieved. But achieving AGI may mean mass unemployment. So who will spend money when the jobs are gone? How are we preparing for this moment? What will society look like?
That’s the subject of this week’s Sunday essay.